Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 0.954983 1.092501 1.238618 1.404980 1.588677 1.784854 2.009727
2025-03-02 0.722808 0.905228 1.112701 1.364321 1.659325 1.992304 2.394546
2025-03-09 0.580711 0.792540 1.049230 1.378816 1.786074 2.267984 2.876100
2025-03-16 0.461099 0.685737 0.975420 1.368142 1.877638 2.506837 3.332087
2025-03-23 0.391510 0.630552 0.956795 1.420917 2.048958 2.853112 3.942237
2025-03-30 0.307744 0.540392 0.877674 1.382086 2.094415 3.039838 4.361066
2025-04-06 0.249629 0.476631 0.825169 1.371098 2.172431 3.270452 4.847567
2025-04-13 0.199891 0.415973 0.767526 1.343808 2.221757 3.461612 5.288551
2025-04-20 0.169903 0.382281 0.746086 1.366514 2.342181 3.755375 5.882313
2025-04-27 0.141506 0.345385 0.713553 1.366786 2.426584 3.999793 6.416129
2025-05-04 0.121607 0.320425 0.697385 1.390591 2.546857 4.300634 7.042214
2025-05-11 0.105142 0.298782 0.683691 1.416022 2.669662 4.609395 7.691056
2025-05-18 0.084168 0.263145 0.640362 1.388292 2.708886 4.800726 8.187265
2025-05-25 0.064019 0.223475 0.582472 1.327297 2.687054 4.895350 8.542020
2025-06-01 0.052675 0.202439 0.559100 1.327506 2.769076 5.157798 9.165321
2025-06-08 0.041997 0.179531 0.527565 1.307836 2.813717 5.361060 9.704064
2025-06-15 0.036905 0.171483 0.528235 1.352301 2.976354 5.765406 10.576408
2025-06-22 0.028301 0.148630 0.489552 1.310723 2.976562 5.897045 11.015254
2025-06-29 0.022593 0.133088 0.465718 1.297343 3.027670 6.115932 11.602362
2025-07-06 0.017478 0.117027 0.437043 1.269342 3.047412 6.279936 12.103220
2025-07-13 0.014773 0.109574 0.430268 1.289749 3.162625 6.614466 12.897101
2025-07-20 0.011970 0.099980 0.415344 1.289136 3.234930 6.874872 13.573740
2025-07-27 0.010130 0.094063 0.410195 1.311261 3.354691 7.224940 14.413429